Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016346 0.018499 0.020831 0.023545 0.026619 0.029994 0.033980
2025-08-31 0.012744 0.015654 0.019075 0.023395 0.028711 0.035045 0.043178
2025-09-07 0.011035 0.014339 0.018446 0.023931 0.031077 0.040089 0.052347
2025-09-14 0.009329 0.012689 0.017061 0.023172 0.031516 0.042537 0.058252
2025-09-21 0.008188 0.011587 0.016186 0.022877 0.032390 0.045472 0.064906
2025-09-28 0.007147 0.010477 0.015145 0.022179 0.032548 0.047330 0.070115
2025-10-05 0.006743 0.010212 0.015233 0.023053 0.034972 0.052540 0.080556
2025-10-12 0.006312 0.009850 0.015126 0.023596 0.036913 0.057156 0.090475
2025-10-19 0.005952 0.009552 0.015075 0.024194 0.038955 0.062050 0.101210
2025-10-26 0.005472 0.009015 0.014595 0.024056 0.039792 0.065091 0.109199
2025-11-02 0.005080 0.008582 0.014233 0.024061 0.040835 0.068508 0.118051
2025-11-09 0.004644 0.008032 0.013631 0.023602 0.041043 0.070529 0.124665
2025-11-16 0.004374 0.007748 0.013457 0.023874 0.042554 0.074929 0.135910
2025-11-23 0.004054 0.007348 0.013053 0.023707 0.043280 0.078029 0.145126
2025-11-30 0.003878 0.007188 0.013050 0.024251 0.045315 0.083596 0.159323
2025-12-07 0.003525 0.006673 0.012367 0.023482 0.044852 0.084557 0.164914
2025-12-14 0.003273 0.006324 0.011957 0.023183 0.045235 0.087099 0.173728
2025-12-21 0.002991 0.005895 0.011361 0.022475 0.044761 0.087951 0.179255
2025-12-28 0.002931 0.005891 0.011573 0.023361 0.047493 0.095240 0.198369
2026-01-04 0.002834 0.005804 0.011617 0.023911 0.049589 0.101423 0.215731
2026-01-11 0.002749 0.005735 0.011687 0.024517 0.051842 0.108091 0.234681
2026-01-18 0.002591 0.005503 0.011410 0.024377 0.052515 0.111535 0.246975
2026-01-25 0.002460 0.005316 0.011211 0.024382 0.053493 0.115687 0.261170